Last week, Alyssa got the boot and Jinkx kept her place. And I totally called it with my first model that accounted for the proportional hazards assumption. I think the model is having a little more success as the season plods on.

Before I get to the predictions for episode 10, there’s two really interesting prospects that may either give this model some more predictive power or become very interesting projects in their own right.

Drag Queen Confessional – The first is this project that has been undertaken by user aemerz on the RPDR subreddit. The idea focuses on the “confessionals” — the periods of the show when each queen is out of drag and chats about some aspect of the show, as Alaska is doing above. It follows that the more of these that the queen has, dressed in different outfits, probably means that she was on the show longer. aemerz diligently put together a list of confessional appearances, separated by appearance (including clothing and facial hair) and time. Holy crap. Talk about fine-grained data. So far she’s just done this for episode 1, with more to follow, hopefully.

Lineages of the Dragsolutist StateDilettwat and I were chatting on Twitter, and she made the observation that some of the current season’s queens have had “family” connections with queens in the previous seasons. An obvious one with this season is that Alaska is dating last season’s winner, Sharon Needles. But the connections are also generational, between drag mothers (mentors) and their daughters, often expressed in a queen’s surname, for instance. A possible project would be to try to track down these lineages and make a really massive, messy network graph. It would also be interesting to see if these particular lineages made a queen more likely to get on to the show. Also I dearly want to use the “Lineages of the Dragsolutist State” as an article title. If anyone knows where I could get this kind of network data, I will spend a lot of time photoshopping makeup onto a picture of Perry Anderson, which you can then frame and hang above your mantel.

Predictions

Anyhow, here’s the main event. Coco is in major caca after having to lipsync for her third time.

1  Jinkx Monsoon  1.0026270  1.1771043
2         Alaska  1.3982759  1.6070394
3          Detox  2.0801715  0.5885726
4 Roxxxy Andrews  6.3551933  4.0318868
5 Coco Montrese  25.1210568  2.9196050

Jinkx is still set to take top honors, being the only queen that has won two challenges, but Alaska is not too far behind. I wouldn’t be surprised if Roxxxy won next week, just because she’s been whining that there’s been no “glamour” challenges lately. And the producers want to mix this up, right?

  • Del

    Darling, after the season is over, will you please pull all of this together and do up a paper with an eye to next spring’s PCA/ACA (http://pcaaca.org/)conference in Chicago? I’d love to come and sit in on your panel(and maybe try my hand at submitting something myself), and happily spot you a drink or two for the trouble!

    • I’ll strongly consider it, hunty!

      • Del

        It is the perfect venue for this kind of sociological research.

        • I’ve never been but it looks like a fun time!

          • Del

            DC was a hoot. Not a lot of scholarly conferences were you end up playing D&D with people who study BDSM and Erotic Video Game Mods.

          • OMG. Where do I sign up?

  • GTFOBigGovt

    The boy clothing project started to prove that editing is ruling the entire show. That confessionals from any random time (or just ONE confessional, even) are inserted into any random episode, therein causing the public to “hate” certain queens simply by virtue of editing. I don’t think there’s anything saying that boy clothing predicts longevity that I’m aware of.

    Also, some have really limited boy clothing. So you have to look for tiny differences like Roxxxy’s nail polish per episode.

    Lineage, It’s anecdotal and random, very intertwined in certain circumstances (West Hollywood crowd) but not a factor of getting ON and IMO, not a likely predictor.

    For example, Shangela, got on the show via being solicited by a RuPaul producer at a club appearance, not from knowing Alyssa. Morgan got on before Chad, his drag mother. But we know from Santino, the more experienced queens with some fame held back and thought the show was beneath them. Till Season 3.

    BUT it IS a likely predictor of who will work the Untucked and camera time the best. (but that’s not all that measurable either).One would expect Detox to dominate since she knows SO MANY RPDR queens so well. And meh. AND are they REALLY going to give that much help to a future competitor for a high booking fee? I think NOT! LOL

    Having ALL the inside knowledge should be a tremendous strategic advantage.You know exactly how to map out your strategy in advance and how act on camera, and for the first couple of episodes you have the upper hand over someone less informed, while they flail at getting adjusted to it. Unless you’re a Serena Cha Cha who is going for negative focus. Raja said she was going to try and do kai kai for a story line but changed her mind when she got there.

    • I imagine there’s a lot of strategic gaming going on here, for both the producers and the queens themselves. Producers need to make a good show, queens need to promote themselves.

      Selection into the show is probably very much an inside game, which is actually probably why tracking drag lineages would be insightful in its own right. Drag lineages connect to the network structure into the entertainment world writ large. There is definitely the possibility for chance encounters, yes, but like any game, it’s more about who you know.