Forecasting the Membership of the NRA in June 2013

Neal Caren of UNC Sociology has put out a call to forecast the number of NRA members in June 2013 using NRA publication subscriber data. Given that Neal’s interests elide with those of several Bad Hessian contributors and per my previous post on predictions in sociology, I took a stab using the forecast package for R. You can find the code I used here and my forecast can be found on scatterplot here.

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About Trey Causey

Trey Causey is a PhD candidate in the Department of Sociology at the University of Washington. His dissertation focuses on the role of information in contentious collective action in authoritarian states, using quantitative text analysis of original media data in Arabic and English from Egypt and Jordan in the months before and after the Arab uprisings of 2010-2011. E-mail: trey.causey@gmail.com Web: treycausey.com